Lesson Topic Predictions

hehe, well this is a thread on predictions, so why not go all out ,and you're just the man for the task

'what was his story?'

He has a problem with authority. :)

Yeh, I was thinking they might sneak it in as an UI a day or two late - but a week late I would be kind of disappointed. There is always next Census, in ten years time. Yes, I'll probably still be doing ChinesePod, Jenny will have retired to France, John will be a mega rich Shanghai business man, Connie will have been elevated to the 中国共产党中央政治局...

"Including one with a guy who wanted nothing to do with it. :) "

..hehe, what was his story?

Given Halloween came out a day after the event, I think you've got a least a days grace. Heck, I'll pay it if it's even a week afterwards [but no extensions beyond that you hear? after that it becomes a lesson topic suggestion that was acted upon :) ]

hehe, no I didn't know that, but it doesn't surprise me in the slightest. I bet they're betting on anything and everything. I think they all got caught there in the floods recently. No doubt they will have made the most of it.

The Chinese can bet legally on European football results but not on results in their domestic competition, I understand because it is too corrupt. Meaning it would be too costly to police I guess.

But betting is rife - there are majiang shops everywhere.

1000-1 that anyone in ChinesePod knows which State of Australia Birdsville is in. Okay, they can google that. Did you know that the plane into Birdsville traditionally takes bets on where the nosewheel stops after taxiing? Bit hard to describe - the nosewheel is marked with chalk rather like the minutes of an analog clock - so you put your money on a number say 1 - 20 depending on how many passengers there are who want to bet.

What's the most unusual thing you've seen 'em bet on in China?

ps . Ok, what odds will you give me that we'll have a lesson on the Birdsville races [any time] ?

I hear you, $100 is not going to get you to China even if the Australian dollar is mighty impressive. Get out of the horses and buy a poker machine.

oh man, is that the best odds I'm gonna get? I was hoping for 100 times that. If it had been a lesson topic prediction then I'd accept those odds. Can we settle on 5000-1?

100-1. It is more likely to be about the Kentucky Derby (run in May each year). Kentucky Derby 90-1.

I should make it quite clear right now that I know next to nothing about betting on the horsies.

I reckon I'd like to bet a buck that it'll be a horse related lesson tomorrow. The odds would have to be remote enough to fund a trip to China if I was right, hehe. Now to find someone to place that bet with.

or the Cup tomorrow. What are the odds it'll be a lesson on the Cup tomorrow?

Oh, I see you have already dived in. Well, I guess that is more likely than a lesson on The Dismissal.

I'll second that and suggest (again) a lesson on the National Census sometime between now and the 10 November.

If we had a mind to betting we could offer this to poddies as a Double.

see below. Yeah I'll share it with you 50/50 mate. It'll be one for me and one for you, kinda like the day.... 11

This is getting scary. Like an episode of Eureka. Okay that is NOT scary, but I predict that your next prediction will be correct. (Does that count as one for me if you are right?)

It'll be like the weather. They've probably already decided in Beijing what the number is, now they just have to MAKE IT HAPPEN. We need an insider.

hehe, you're asking me an economics question? Oh right, rhetorical.

What do you mean 1.4 is looking good [oh, you mean not nearly 1.4 but a solid 1.4 at least]. I'd like to have poddies guess on this..kinda auction style. Ok we have bodawei with 1.4 bill , do I hear 1.5 , 1.5, one point...oh, we have baba going 2 billion, whoah, do I hear 2.1 billion?

'One Child Policy' update. Talking tonight over dinner to a woman who is one of five. Says one grandmother was a minority (passed on now.) I'm wondering if there is a system where you can claim minority status for a couple of generations - I don't know how this works. But in two consecutive evenings I have been 'introduced' to 12 children from two separate families. Several of them could be over the age limit for being included in the policy (I don't like to pry too much.) Now what is also interesting is the oldest sister has three children of her own. They are from farming country but I thought the limit for farmers was two. Hang on - two are twins, so they must have come second.

Oh, and last week in class one of my students aged 20 said she has six siblings.

That 1.4 billion is looking good to me. Incidentally, amused by John Howard's declaration that China would 'fall behind' India economically because of, inter alia, the One Child Policy. What was that about?

"relies on co-operation of the interviewees"

..yeah, always important to understand how data is obtained and thus how reliable. So I wonder how accurate this nearly 1.4 billion Chinese population estimate is. If all these kids are being hidden away, could we be pushing the figure be significantly higher?

Had dinner last night with a 25 year old who is one of seven children; four are younger than her. Clearly the one-child policy should not be interpreted too literally.

Also at dinner there was talk about how lots of Chinese households are refusing to answer the (or some) Census questions. Maybe they ask for estimated annual income? :)

Bit of a dilemma for the authorities. There are rules about how the information is to be collected but it relies on co-operation of the interviewees.

The last student I 'interviewed' in class comes from 福建 (Fujian) and has two siblings. Three kids in the family; at 21 she is the oldest. Quite a few of my students admit to having siblings. They are presumably either minority nationalities or come from a farming family (I don't ask - I usually say "Oh, that's nice to have a brother [or sister]"). But yeah, some kids in illegal situations might be passed around the family over the next few weeks, if they haven't already been found out - but in my (limited) experience there is no big secret. They are either too poor to be affected by the fines or too rich to care about the money. :)

How many children do you have?

hehe, given the one child policy, can you imagine the kids scurrying under beds and into cupboards while the parents are being interviewed..and the listening in...wondering when it's safe to emerge.

Lol. We could have some fun with this (if I didn't have to work today). I can't remember my questions in 1976 - they were something about housing types - but what would you like to ask the resident population of China??

[To head of household] How many children do you have?

How many hours per week do you work/study?

Number of occupants in your normal place of residence?

Floor area of your normal place of residence?

The year your residence was built?

Does your residence have air-conditioning?

How do you normally travel to work or study? (Private car/bus/train/电动车/bicycle)

How many hours per day do you spend travelling to and from work/study?

How many days of paid/unpaid holidays did you have in the past 12 months?

How many hours a day do you spend on the Internet (work & home)?

How many hours a day do you spend watching TV?

How many times a year do you travel to your hometown?

Name your hometown.

Name your mother's hometown.

Name your father's hometown.

How many meals a week do you eat at home?

How many meals a week do you eat at a restaurant or canteen?

How many years have you spent taking formal classes in English?

What is the normal language spoken in your workplace/classroom?

What language do you normally speak at home?

How many times in the past year did you visit another province?

How many times in the past year did you travel outside China?

I'd like to see the question: ni gan ma? ..pretty random I know,particularly for a census, but I love that question. It should come with audio [ like those birthday cards you open up and poke fun at your age with some joke]. Besides, such an open question could lead to some interesting answers. Some revelations that specific questions won't pick up on, hehe. Might prompt a few guilty confessions.

any curveballs? what was your signature question? what questions would you like to see added in this China census?

Hmm, the ChinesePod teachers would probably remember the last one even if they were in High School (no disrespect of course). Their parents would remember as well, and together with media reports at the time they would have material to draw from. I hope they come out with it soon (now - 10 Nov) - while it is hot news.

There could be speculation about the population but I don't think there will be too many surprises. Population is pretty easy to forecast because the drivers change so slowly. However, mobility will be one of the big stories. I am canvassing each of my students about where they come from and it is really quite surprising - the majority do not come from here. Many say they moved to get away from parents!

The actual questions can be fun, new ones usually being added each Census, while keeping old ones so you can compare with previous surveys. I helped form questions for the 1976 Census in Aust, right place, right time. :) Ouch, nearly 35 yrs ago.

I'll agree with this prediction [ but you still get the credit of course mate, hehe] . An interesting topic, and relatively uncommon event which could make for an interesting dialogue as well as follow up discussion. The question will be whether such a lesson comes out before the census so it's useful to someone like yourself who will actually get involved [ either way, I'd love to hear if you managed to conduct the interview in Chinese and how it went], or whether it comes out after the event when the dialogue script writers have had the experience of going through the census themselves. I guess it could come down to a couple of factors.....how long this census has been generally known about and thus time to come up with the idea of it being a lesson and getting it into production, and how predictable the census format/questions will be [ I guess pretty predictable] and also how close to authentic they want the dialogue to be.

hehe, now if you're really good, you'll predict the sentence this word will be used in.

I'll have a try at using the last method. ok, well looking at the latest intermediate level lesson...music corner in the park, 2 words stick out as potential candidates for further exploration in different contexts. the first is 爱好, mainly because it was used a little differently in this lesson, but it has popped up in previous lessons, so I'll go with the second word that pops out...请教。 I predict there will be a lesson in the next 2 weeks in which this word will appear. It will be more in the form of a professional consult, perhaps in a business consult and will also be at Intermediate level.